Poker Jackpots: To Open or Not to Open?
Among the last several generations of Poker players, Jackpots has been the most popular form of draw.
To open, you need one pair of J's, or better.
On the average, such a holding -- something from one pair of J's all the way up through a Royal Flush -- occurs once in approximately five hands.
Equipped with this information, or having casually dismissed it from your mind, you hear the dealer make his choice: 'Jacks or better.'
Everybody antes one chip. You may open for two chips, and raises are limited to two chips.
What do you do in each of the following situations?
Say, player A deals. F, H, and G check. You hold J J six four two. Open or check? Open. It is sound in this position to do so with J's.
You deal. Everybody else checks. You hold three three two two four -- the shortest of the two pairs. Open or check? Open. You probably won't get much action; you may make off with the ante, without a contest.
Three deals have been passed out. There has been an additional ante after each deal, and there are now twenty-eight chips in the pot.
G deals, and you are under the gun with J J six five two. You may open for two chips. Open or check?
Check. Let as assume that your pair of J's is the best hand before the draw, and that you open. With all those chips beckoning from the table, this crowd, with the exception of A and G. will march merrily and automatically in.
Here is what you may expect:
B, planning to draw two to a three-flush, or something equally ridiculous, will call, saying, 'My hand is hideous, but the odds seduce me.' A, holding seven six three two A, will fold, groaning, 'I wish this was Lowball.'
F, lured by the cheese of an inside straight, will quietly call. H, holding a K Q in the same suit, will loudly raise. If he fails to improve in the draw, he will bluff. It won't work. The size of the pot being what it is, somebody will surely 'keep him honest.'
G will fold, unless he holds something much better than minimum openers - or a four-flush or a bobtail -- in which event he will put in a scientific raise based on the odds.
Now, with so many more chips on the table, you will probably call. B, nudged by his leprechaun, will raise - and so on.
Individually, each of these characters except G will be bucking odds too long for the risk. But if you take them collectively - if you add up their chances, such as they are - your J's alone are unlikely to stand up.
You must improve, and the odds are against you.